{"n_withdrawn":172,"n_issued":989,"share_withdrawn":0.1739,"policy":"Withdrawn forecasts are excluded from every published metric and can never be scored. They are retained in full, with the stated reason, and reasons are corrected by appending, never by overwriting.","withdrawals":[{"reference_date":"2026-03-09","n_predictions":43,"n_regions":43,"withdrawn_at":"2026-07-31T11:36:32.082514+00:00","void_reason":"Inputs predate the removal of synthetic data. CHIRPS fell back to mock on any live-source failure and MODIS NDVI fell back to mock whenever the Earthdata token was absent, both until 2026-04-06; UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01; expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07. These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43. Voided rather than deleted: the forecasts stand on the record, they are excluded from the published score.\n[correction 2026-07-31T11:44:14.481678+00:00] Correction: the clause 'These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43' is wrong. Each of these four reference dates carries 43 predictions in the ledger; 30 of each was the number that had been graded, and the run size was inferred from the graded subset without being checked. The grounds for the void are unaffected: CHIRPS and MODIS NDVI both fell back to mock data until 2026-04-06, UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01, and expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07."},{"reference_date":"2026-03-16","n_predictions":43,"n_regions":43,"withdrawn_at":"2026-07-31T11:36:32.339136+00:00","void_reason":"Inputs predate the removal of synthetic data. CHIRPS fell back to mock on any live-source failure and MODIS NDVI fell back to mock whenever the Earthdata token was absent, both until 2026-04-06; UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01; expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07. These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43. Voided rather than deleted: the forecasts stand on the record, they are excluded from the published score.\n[correction 2026-07-31T11:44:14.603167+00:00] Correction: the clause 'These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43' is wrong. Each of these four reference dates carries 43 predictions in the ledger; 30 of each was the number that had been graded, and the run size was inferred from the graded subset without being checked. The grounds for the void are unaffected: CHIRPS and MODIS NDVI both fell back to mock data until 2026-04-06, UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01, and expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07."},{"reference_date":"2026-03-23","n_predictions":43,"n_regions":43,"withdrawn_at":"2026-07-31T11:36:32.552050+00:00","void_reason":"Inputs predate the removal of synthetic data. CHIRPS fell back to mock on any live-source failure and MODIS NDVI fell back to mock whenever the Earthdata token was absent, both until 2026-04-06; UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01; expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07. These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43. Voided rather than deleted: the forecasts stand on the record, they are excluded from the published score.\n[correction 2026-07-31T11:44:14.787614+00:00] Correction: the clause 'These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43' is wrong. Each of these four reference dates carries 43 predictions in the ledger; 30 of each was the number that had been graded, and the run size was inferred from the graded subset without being checked. The grounds for the void are unaffected: CHIRPS and MODIS NDVI both fell back to mock data until 2026-04-06, UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01, and expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07."},{"reference_date":"2026-03-30","n_predictions":43,"n_regions":43,"withdrawn_at":"2026-07-31T11:36:32.777307+00:00","void_reason":"Inputs predate the removal of synthetic data. CHIRPS fell back to mock on any live-source failure and MODIS NDVI fell back to mock whenever the Earthdata token was absent, both until 2026-04-06; UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01; expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07. These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43. Voided rather than deleted: the forecasts stand on the record, they are excluded from the published score.\n[correction 2026-07-31T11:44:14.905229+00:00] Correction: the clause 'These four runs also carried 30 regions, not the required 43' is wrong. Each of these four reference dates carries 43 predictions in the ledger; 30 of each was the number that had been graded, and the run size was inferred from the graded subset without being checked. The grounds for the void are unaffected: CHIRPS and MODIS NDVI both fell back to mock data until 2026-04-06, UCDP conflict data was missing for SOM, PSE, YEM, AFG and SYR until 2026-03-30 to 04-01, and expert priors were only removed on 2026-04-07."}]}