[{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20260907-74355A","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.208113+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.93/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 83.4%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 58.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 3.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.925,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8335,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.5834,"p_famine_90d":0.2625,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":2,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20260831-6881DC","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.519974+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.93/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 71.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 50.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 3.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.925,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.7181,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.5027,"p_famine_90d":0.2262,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":2,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20260824-5C066D","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076310+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.79/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 64.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 45.0%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 3.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.793,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6424,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.4497,"p_famine_90d":0.2024,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":2,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20260921-4B8708","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-09-21T12:14:32.253135+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-21","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.77/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 60.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 42.6%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.7708,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6086,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.426,"p_famine_90d":0.1917,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20260914-182041","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-09-14T12:04:06.420044+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-14","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.77/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 60.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 42.6%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.7708,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6086,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.426,"p_famine_90d":0.1917,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20260912-3B6368","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-09-12T10:30:19.396824+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.74/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 87.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 61.4%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.7426,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8778,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.6144,"p_famine_90d":0.2765,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ZWE-20260824-3BD22E","region_id":"ZWE","region_name":"Zimbabwe","lat":-20.0,"lon":30.0,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.077216+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Zimbabwe (ZWE): Composite stress score 0.71/1.0 driven by CLIMATE. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 27.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 19.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 2.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.7087,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.2786,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.195,"p_famine_90d":0.0877,"driver_types":["CLIMATE"],"n_sources_agreeing":1,"evidence_count":1,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SOM-20260831-4D5350","region_id":"SOM","region_name":"Somalia","lat":5.9,"lon":43.7,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.518286+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Somalia (SOM): Composite stress score 0.67/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 81.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 25.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6737,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8185,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2546,"p_famine_90d":0.1146,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20260907-00A53F","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210050+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.67/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 88.1%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 23.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6716,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8809,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.233,"p_famine_90d":0.0061,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-RWA-20260907-DCE7F9","region_id":"RWA","region_name":"Rwanda","lat":-1.9,"lon":29.9,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.211073+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Rwanda (RWA): Composite stress score 0.67/1.0 driven by CLIMATE. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 18.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 13.1%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 2.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.6667,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.1875,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1312,"p_famine_90d":0.0591,"driver_types":["CLIMATE"],"n_sources_agreeing":1,"evidence_count":1,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-RWA-20260831-8A1501","region_id":"RWA","region_name":"Rwanda","lat":-1.9,"lon":29.9,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.520873+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Rwanda (RWA): Composite stress score 0.67/1.0 driven by CLIMATE. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 18.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 13.1%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 2.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.6667,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.1875,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1312,"p_famine_90d":0.0591,"driver_types":["CLIMATE"],"n_sources_agreeing":1,"evidence_count":1,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20260831-362FD8","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.519880+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.67/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 83.1%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 22.0%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6666,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8312,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2199,"p_famine_90d":0.0058,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SOM-20260907-47B46E","region_id":"SOM","region_name":"Somalia","lat":5.9,"lon":43.7,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210152+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Somalia (SOM): Composite stress score 0.66/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 84.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 26.4%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6562,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8489,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2641,"p_famine_90d":0.1188,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20260921-93E212","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-09-21T12:14:32.251195+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-21","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.61/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 85.7%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 22.7%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6054,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8574,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2268,"p_famine_90d":0.0059,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20260914-9FD463","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-09-14T12:04:06.418963+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-14","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.61/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 85.7%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 22.7%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6054,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8574,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2268,"p_famine_90d":0.0059,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20260912-0DDCB3","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-09-12T10:30:19.397334+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.61/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 85.7%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 22.7%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.6054,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8574,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2268,"p_famine_90d":0.0059,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SOM-20260921-C62110","region_id":"SOM","region_name":"Somalia","lat":5.9,"lon":43.7,"created_at":"2026-09-21T12:14:32.252557+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-21","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Somalia (SOM): Composite stress score 0.59/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 82.0%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 25.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5906,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8199,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2551,"p_famine_90d":0.1148,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SOM-20260914-41E2DA","region_id":"SOM","region_name":"Somalia","lat":5.9,"lon":43.7,"created_at":"2026-09-14T12:04:06.419835+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-14","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Somalia (SOM): Composite stress score 0.59/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 82.0%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 25.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5906,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8199,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2551,"p_famine_90d":0.1148,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SOM-20260912-5A07C3","region_id":"SOM","region_name":"Somalia","lat":5.9,"lon":43.7,"created_at":"2026-09-12T10:30:19.397463+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Somalia (SOM): Composite stress score 0.59/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 82.0%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 25.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5906,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.8199,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2551,"p_famine_90d":0.1148,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":5},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-KEN-20260824-33CDC1","region_id":"KEN","region_name":"Kenya","lat":-1.3,"lon":36.8,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076732+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Kenya (KEN): Composite stress score 0.56/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 63.6%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 10.1%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5564,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6358,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1007,"p_famine_90d":0.0453,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20260824-983D4C","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.075475+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.55/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 75.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 20.0%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5527,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.7575,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2004,"p_famine_90d":0.0052,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20261012-B8C8B3","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-10-12T14:41:17.939520+00:00","reference_date":"2026-10-12","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.55/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 29.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 20.4%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5458,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.2919,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2044,"p_famine_90d":0.092,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ETH-20261005-412DCB","region_id":"ETH","region_name":"Ethiopia","lat":9.1,"lon":40.5,"created_at":"2026-10-05T13:52:28.789851+00:00","reference_date":"2026-10-05","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Ethiopia (ETH): Composite stress score 0.55/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 29.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 20.4%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5458,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.2919,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.2044,"p_famine_90d":0.092,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-HTI-20260824-94C6EE","region_id":"HTI","region_name":"Haiti","lat":18.9,"lon":-72.3,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076671+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Haiti (HTI): Composite stress score 0.55/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 58.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 19.4%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5458,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5818,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1935,"p_famine_90d":0.0871,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20261012-46B51C","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-10-12T14:41:17.939152+00:00","reference_date":"2026-10-12","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.54/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 51.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 3.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.5377,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5194,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0355,"p_famine_90d":0.016,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-COD-20260831-B1F26F","region_id":"COD","region_name":"DR Congo","lat":-4.0,"lon":21.8,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.520042+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"DR Congo (COD): Composite stress score 0.54/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 60.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 7.8%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5359,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6018,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0783,"p_famine_90d":0.0353,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20261005-C7AE32","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-10-05T13:52:28.789513+00:00","reference_date":"2026-10-05","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.53/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 51.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 5.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.5348,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5123,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0534,"p_famine_90d":0.0241,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20260824-3BB40E","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076841+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.53/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 52.4%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 5.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.5322,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5239,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0547,"p_famine_90d":0.0246,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-COD-20260907-F4DFD0","region_id":"COD","region_name":"DR Congo","lat":-4.0,"lon":21.8,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210488+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"DR Congo (COD): Composite stress score 0.53/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 65.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 8.6%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.5259,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6592,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0858,"p_famine_90d":0.0386,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20260907-56DAB5","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210768+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.52/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 49.5%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 5.2%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5153,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4953,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0517,"p_famine_90d":0.0233,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20260831-24EBB0","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.520404+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.51/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 40.8%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 4.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5085,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4085,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0426,"p_famine_90d":0.0192,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-RWA-20260921-1A93E1","region_id":"RWA","region_name":"Rwanda","lat":-1.9,"lon":29.9,"created_at":"2026-09-21T12:14:32.253987+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-21","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Rwanda (RWA): Composite stress score 0.50/1.0 driven by CLIMATE. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 11.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 8.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 3.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.1192,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0834,"p_famine_90d":0.0375,"driver_types":["CLIMATE"],"n_sources_agreeing":1,"evidence_count":2,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-RWA-20260914-5BB4CE","region_id":"RWA","region_name":"Rwanda","lat":-1.9,"lon":29.9,"created_at":"2026-09-14T12:04:06.421200+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-14","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Rwanda (RWA): Composite stress score 0.50/1.0 driven by CLIMATE. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 11.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 8.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 3.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.1192,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0834,"p_famine_90d":0.0375,"driver_types":["CLIMATE"],"n_sources_agreeing":1,"evidence_count":2,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-ERI-20260824-FABEFF","region_id":"ERI","region_name":"Eritrea","lat":15.2,"lon":39.8,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.078086+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Eritrea (ERI): Composite stress score 0.50/1.0 driven by CLIMATE. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 7.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 5.6%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 1.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.5,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.0794,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0556,"p_famine_90d":0.025,"driver_types":["CLIMATE"],"n_sources_agreeing":1,"evidence_count":1,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SSD-20260907-F84F2F","region_id":"SSD","region_name":"South Sudan","lat":7.9,"lon":29.7,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210230+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"South Sudan (SSD): Composite stress score 0.50/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 66.1%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 14.6%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4998,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.661,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1464,"p_famine_90d":0.0031,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SOM-20260824-0F5805","region_id":"SOM","region_name":"Somalia","lat":5.9,"lon":43.7,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076443+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Somalia (SOM): Composite stress score 0.50/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 64.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 20.2%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4998,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6492,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.202,"p_famine_90d":0.0909,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-BFA-20260824-06B479","region_id":"BFA","region_name":"Burkina Faso","lat":12.4,"lon":-1.6,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076615+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Burkina Faso (BFA): Composite stress score 0.49/1.0 driven by CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 47.3%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 33.1%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.4917,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4734,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.3314,"p_famine_90d":0.1491,"driver_types":["CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":3},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SSD-20260831-1082B9","region_id":"SSD","region_name":"South Sudan","lat":7.9,"lon":29.7,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.520107+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"South Sudan (SSD): Composite stress score 0.49/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 55.1%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 12.2%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.488,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5515,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1222,"p_famine_90d":0.0026,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20261005-42E8AB","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-10-05T13:52:28.788939+00:00","reference_date":"2026-10-05","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.49/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 70.6%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 18.7%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-1","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4864,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.7062,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1868,"p_famine_90d":0.0049,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SDN-20261012-C2AB49","region_id":"SDN","region_name":"Sudan","lat":12.9,"lon":30.2,"created_at":"2026-10-12T14:41:17.938102+00:00","reference_date":"2026-10-12","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Sudan (SDN): Composite stress score 0.48/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 69.7%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 18.4%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4817,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6972,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1844,"p_famine_90d":0.0048,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-HTI-20260907-747FD5","region_id":"HTI","region_name":"Haiti","lat":18.9,"lon":-72.3,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210603+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Haiti (HTI): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 45.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 15.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.4733,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4594,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1528,"p_famine_90d":0.0688,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-HTI-20260831-EF938E","region_id":"HTI","region_name":"Haiti","lat":18.9,"lon":-72.3,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.520169+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Haiti (HTI): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 45.9%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 15.3%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 4.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.4733,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4594,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1528,"p_famine_90d":0.0688,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-COD-20260921-43B711","region_id":"COD","region_name":"DR Congo","lat":-4.0,"lon":21.8,"created_at":"2026-09-21T12:14:32.253207+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-21","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"DR Congo (COD): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 60.0%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 7.8%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4723,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5999,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0781,"p_famine_90d":0.0351,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-COD-20260914-2656A6","region_id":"COD","region_name":"DR Congo","lat":-4.0,"lon":21.8,"created_at":"2026-09-14T12:04:06.420202+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-14","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"DR Congo (COD): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 54.5%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 7.1%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4723,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5446,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0709,"p_famine_90d":0.0319,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-COD-20260912-627F31","region_id":"COD","region_name":"DR Congo","lat":-4.0,"lon":21.8,"created_at":"2026-09-12T10:30:19.397714+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"DR Congo (COD): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 60.0%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 7.8%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 6.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4723,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.5999,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0781,"p_famine_90d":0.0351,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-KEN-20260907-EA163C","region_id":"KEN","region_name":"Kenya","lat":-1.3,"lon":36.8,"created_at":"2026-09-07T11:51:49.210714+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-07","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Kenya (KEN): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 48.3%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 7.6%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.4703,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4832,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0765,"p_famine_90d":0.0344,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-SSD-20260824-1250C9","region_id":"SSD","region_name":"South Sudan","lat":7.9,"lon":29.7,"created_at":"2026-08-24T07:00:58.076546+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-24","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"South Sudan (SSD): Composite stress score 0.47/1.0 driven by CONFLICT + ECONOMIC. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 61.0%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 13.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 4. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":4,"composite_stress_score":0.4702,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.6102,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.1352,"p_famine_90d":0.0028,"driver_types":["CONFLICT","ECONOMIC"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-KEN-20260831-68574F","region_id":"KEN","region_name":"Kenya","lat":-1.3,"lon":36.8,"created_at":"2026-08-31T13:00:50.520291+00:00","reference_date":"2026-08-31","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Kenya (KEN): Composite stress score 0.46/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 47.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 7.5%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 3. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-2","ipc_phase_forecast":3,"composite_stress_score":0.4642,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.4722,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0748,"p_famine_90d":0.0336,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":3,"evidence_count":3,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20260921-827B1D","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-09-21T12:14:32.253498+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-21","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.46/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 38.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 4.0%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.4614,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.3816,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0398,"p_famine_90d":0.0179,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4},{"hypothesis_id":"CERES-HYP-MOZ-20260914-89CA35","region_id":"MOZ","region_name":"Mozambique","lat":-18.7,"lon":35.5,"created_at":"2026-09-14T12:04:06.420662+00:00","reference_date":"2026-09-14","forecast_horizon_days":90,"description":"Mozambique (MOZ): Composite stress score 0.46/1.0 driven by CLIMATE + CONFLICT. P(IPC Phase 3+ within 90 days) = 38.2%. P(IPC Phase 4+ within 90 days) = 4.0%. Forecast IPC phase at horizon: 2. Data sources contributing: 5.","alert_tier":"TIER-3","ipc_phase_forecast":2,"composite_stress_score":0.4614,"p_ipc3plus_90d":0.3816,"p_ipc4plus_90d":0.0398,"p_famine_90d":0.0179,"driver_types":["CLIMATE","CONFLICT"],"n_sources_agreeing":2,"evidence_count":4,"test_plan_count":4}]